Trade theories:

Adam Smith claimed that a country should specialise in, and export, commodities in which it had an absolute advantage. An absolute advantage existed when the country could produce a commodity with less costs per unit produced than could its trading partner. By the same reasoning, it should import commodities in which it had an absolute disadvantage,.
While there are possible gains from trade with absolute advantage, comparative advantage extends the range of possible mutually beneficial exchanges. In other words it is not necessary to have an absolute advantage to gain from trade, only a comparative advantage.
Comparative cost advantage (David Ricardo, 1817)
Main articles: Comparative advantage and Ricardian economics
David Ricardo argued that a country need not have an absolute advantage in the production of any commodity for international trade between it and another country to be mutually beneficialAbsolute advantage meant greater efficiency in production, or the use of less labor factor in production.Two countries could both benefit from trade if each had a relative advantage in production.Relative advantage simply meant that the ratio of the labor embodied in the two commodities differed between two countries, such that each country would have at least one commoditiy where the relative amount of labor embodied would be less than that of the other country.
Gravity model of trade (Walter Isard, 1954)
Main article: Gravity model of trade
The gravity model of trade in international economics, similar to other gravity models in social science, predicts bilateral trade flows based on the economic sizes of (often using GDP measurements) and distance between two units. The basic theoretical model for trade between two countries takes the form of:
with:
: Trade flow
: Country i and j
: Economic mass, for example GDP
: Distance
: Constant
The model has also been used in international relations to evaluate the impact of treaties and alliances on trade, and it has been used to test the effectiveness of trade agreements and organizations such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Worl Trade Organization (WTO).
Heckscher-Ohlin model (Eli Heckscher, 1966 & Bertil Ohlin, 1952)
Main article: Heckscher-Ohlin model
The Heckscher-Ohlin model (H-O model), also known as the factors proportions development, is a general equilibrium mathematical model of international trade, developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin at the Stockholm School of Economics. It builds on David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage by predicting patterns of commerce and production based on the factor endowments of a trading region. The model essentially says that countries will export products that utilize their abundant and cheap factor(s) of production and import products that utilize the countries' scarce factor(s).
The results of this work has been the formulation of certain named conclusions arising from the assumptions inherent in the model. These are known as:
Heckscher-Ohlin theorem
Rybczynski theorem
Stolper-Samuelson theorem
Factor-Price Equalization theorem
Leontief paradox (Wassily Leontief, 1954)
Main article: Leontief paradox
Leontief's paradox in economics is that the country with the world's highest capital-per worker has a lower capital:labour ratio in exports than in imports.
This econometric find was the result of Professor Wassily W. Leontief's attempt to test the Heckscher-Ohlin theory empirically. In 1954, Leontief found that the U.S. (the most capital-abundant country in the world by any criteria) exported labor-intensive commodities and imported capital-intensive commodities, in contradiction with Heckscher-Ohlin theory.
Linder hypothesis (Staffan Burenstam Linder, 1961)
Main article: Linder hypothesis
The Linder hypothesis (demand-structure hypothesis) is a conjectue in economics about international trade patterns. The hypothesis is that the more similar are the demand structures of countries the more they will trade with one another. Further, international trade will still occur between two countries having identical preferences and factor endowments (relying on specialization to create a comparative advantage in the production of differentiated goods between the two nations).
Location theory
Main article: Location theory
Location theory is concerned with the geographic location of economic activity; it has become an integral part of economic geography, regional science, and spatial economics. Location theory addresses the questions of what economic activities are located where and why. Location theory rests — like microeconomic theory generally — on the assumption that agents act in their own self interest. Thus firms choose locations that maximize their profits and individuals choose locations, that maximize their utility.
Market imperfection theory (Stephen Hymer, 1976 & Charles P. Kindleberger, 1969 & Richard E. Caves, 1971)
Main article: Market failure
In economics, a market failure is a situation wherein the allocation of production or use of good and services by the free market is not efficient. Market failures can be viewed as scenarios where individuals' pursuit of pure self-interest leads to results that can be improved upon from the societal point-of-viewThe first known use of the term by economists was in 1958but the concept has been traced back to the Victorian philosopher Henry Sidgwick.
Market imperfection can be defined as anything that interferes with tradeThis includes two dimensions of imperfectionsFirst, imperfections cause a rational market participant to deviate from holding the market portfolioSecond, imperfections cause a rational market participant to deviate from his preferred risk level.Market imperfections generate costs which interfere with trades that rational individuals make (or would make in the absence of the imperfectionThe idea that MNEs owe their existence to market imperfections was first put forward by Hymer, Kindlebergr and CavesThe market imperfections they had in mind were, however, structural imperfections in markets for final products.According to Hymer, market imperfections are structural, arising from structural deviations from perfect competition in the final product market due to exclusive and permanent control of proprietary technology, privileged access to inputs, scale economies, control of distribution systems, and product differentationbut in their absence markets are perfectly efficientBy contrast, the insight of transaction costs theories of the MNEs, simultaneously and independently developed in the 1970s by McManus (1972), Buckley and Casson (1976), Brown (1976) and Hennart (1977, 1982), is that market imperfections are inherent attributes of markets, and MNEs are institutions to bypass these imperfections. Markets experience natural imperfections, i.e. imperfections that are due to the fact that the implicit neoclassical assumptions of perfect knowledge and perfect enforcement are not realized.
New Trade Theory
Main article: New Trade Theory
New Trade Theory (NTT) is the economic critique of international free trade from the perspective of increasing returns to scale and the network effect. Some economists have asked whether it might be effective for a nation to shelter infant industries until they had grown to a sufficient size large enough to compete internationally.
New Trade theorists challenge the assumption of diminishing returns to scale, and some argue that using protectionist measures to build up a huge industrial base in certain industries will then allow those sectors to dominate the world market (via a Network effect).
Specific factors model
Main article: International trade#Specific factors model
In this model, labour mobility between industries is possible while capital is immobile between industries in the short-run. Thus, this model can be interpreted as a 'short run' version of the Heckscher-Ohlin model.

Internationalization

In economics, internationalization has been viewed as a process of increasing involvement of enterprises in international markets,although there is no agreed definition of internationalization or international entrepreneurship.There are several internationalization theories which try to explain why there are international activities.
Contents

1 Trade theories
1.1 Absolute cost advantage (Adam Smith, 1776)
1.2 Comparative cost advantage (David Ricardo, 1817)
1.3 Gravity model of trade (Walter Isard, 1954
1.4 Heckscher-Ohlin model (Eli Heckscher, 196 & Bertil Ohlin, 1952)
1.5 Leontief paradox (Wassily Leontief, 1954
1.6 Linder hypothesis (Staffan Burenstam Linder, 1961)
1.7 Location theory
1.8 Market imperfection theory (Stephen Hymer, 1976 & Charles P. Kindleberger, 1969 & Richard E. Caves, 1971)
1.9 New Trade Theory
1.10 Specific factors model
2 Traditional approaches
2.1 Diamond model (Michael Porter)
2.2 Diffusion of innovations (Rogers, 1962)
2.3 Eclectic paradigm (John H. Dunning)
2.4 Foreign direct investment theory (FDI)
2.5 Monopolistic advantage theory (Stephen Hymer)
2.6 Non-availability approach (Irving B. Kravis, 1956)
2.7 Technology gap theory of trade (Posner)
2.8 Uppsala model
3 Further theories
3.1 Behavioral theory of the firm (Richard M. Cyert & James G. March, 1963; Yair Aharoni, 1966)
3.2 Contingency theory
3.3 Contract theory
3.4 Economy of scale
3.5 Internalisation theory (Peter J. Buckley & Mark Casson)
3.6 Product life cycle theory (Vernon L. Smith)
3.7 Transaction cost theory
3.8 Theory of the growth of the firm (Edith Penrose, 1959)

Import

An import is any good (e.g. a commodity) or service brought in from one country to another country in a legitimate fashion, typically for use in trade. It is a good that is brought in from another country for sale. Import goods or services are provided to domestic consumers by foreign producers. An import in the receiving country is an export to the sending country.
Imports, along with exports, form the basis of international trade. Import of goods normally requires involvement of the customs authorities in both the country of import and the country of export and are often subject to import quotas, tariffs and trade agreements. When the "imports" are the set of goods and services imported, "Imports" also means the economic value of all goods and services that are imported. The macroeconomic variable I usually stands for the value of these imports over a given period of time, usually one year.[citation needed]
Contents
1 Balance of trade
2 Types of import
3 Role of the Internet
4 References
5 See also
Balance of trade
Balance of trade represents a difference in value for import and export for a country. A country has demand for an import when domestic quantity demanded exceeds domestic quantity supplied, or when the price of the good (or service) on the world market is less than the price on the domestic market.
The balance of trade, usually denoted NX, is the difference between the value of the goods (and services) a country exports and the value of the goods the country imports:
NX = X − I, or equivalently I = X − NX
A trade deficit occurs when imports are large relative to exports. Imports are impacted principally by a country's income and its productive resources. For example, the US imports oil from Canada even though the US has oil and Canada uses oil. However, consumers in the US are willing to pay more for the marginal barrel of oil than Canadian consumers are, because there is more oil demanded in the US than there is oil produced.[citation needed]
In macroeconomic theory, the value of imports I can be modeled as a function of the domestic absorption A and the real exchange rate σ. These are the two largest factors of imports and they both affect imports positively:
I = I(A,σ)
Types of import
There are two basic types of import:
Industrial and consumer goods
Intermediate goods and services
Companies import goods and services to supply to the domestic market at a cheaper price and better quality than competing goods manufactured in the domestic market. Companies import products that are not available in the local market.
There are three broad types of importers:
Looking for any product around the world to import and sell.
Looking for foreign sourcing to get their products at the cheapest price.
Using foreign sourcing as part of their global supply chain.
Direct-import refers to a type of business importation involving a major retailer (eg. Wal-Mart) and an overseas manufacturr. A retailer typically purchases products designed by local companies that can be manufactured overseas. In a direct-import program, the retailer bypasses the local supplier (colloquial middle-man) and buys the final product directly from the manufacturer, possibly saving in added costs. This type of business is fairly recent and follows the trends of the global economy.
Role of the Internet
Many online auction websites are now providing wholesalers through a wholesale list, generally, the lists that require a fee to view, may not be updated frequently, the data may be old, and the companies listed may no longer be in business.[citation needed]
Another form of online middlemen are B2B trade companies. These cater mainly to big businesses who are importing large quantities of goods from foreign countries. They also have sister sites that serve smaller orders for small businesses.[citation needed] In addressing the concerns of listed companies' legitimacy and dependability, such B2B portals may inspect suppliers at their actual premises before they list suppliers. Alternatively, these companies may also branch out of cyberspace and organize their own sourcing fairs, where thousands of buyers and suppliers can meet face-to-face

International trade law

International trade law includes the appropriate rules and customs for handling trade between countries or between private companies across borders. Over the past twenty years, it has become one of the fastest growing areas of international law. There is some debate, however, over whether "international trade law" can truly be considered "law."
Contents
1 Overview
2 World Trade Organization
3 Trade in goods
4 Trade and Human Rights
5 Dispute settlement
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Overview
International trade law should be distinguished from the broader field of international economic law. The latter could be said to encompass not only WTO law, but also law governing the international monetary system and currency regulation, as well as the law of international development.
The body of rules for transnational trade in the 21st century derives from medieval commercial laws called the lex mercatoria and lex maritima — respectively, "the law for merchants on land" and "the law for merchants on sea." Modern trade law (extending beyond bilateral treaties) began shortly after the Second World War, with the negotiation of a multilateral treaty to deal with trade in goods: the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
International trade law is based on theories of economic liberalism developed in Europe and later the United States from the 18th century onwards..
World Trade Organization
In 1995, the World Trade Organization, a formal international organization to regulate trade, was established. It is the most important development in the history of international trade law.
The purposes and structure of the organization is governed by the Agreement Establishing The World Trade Organization, also known as the "Marrakesh Agreement". It does not specify the actual rules that govern international trade in specific areas. These are found in separate treaties, annexed to the Marrakesh Agreement.
Trade in goods
The GATT has been the backbone of international trade law throughout most of the twentieth century. It contains rules relating to "unfair" trading practices — dumping and subsidies.
Trade and Human Rights
The World Trade Organisation Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement required signatory nations to raise intellectual property rights (also known as intellectual monopoloy privileges). This arguably has had a negative impact on access to essential medicines in some nations.
Dispute settlement
Since there are no international governing judges (2004) the means of dispute resolution is determined by jurisdiction. Each individual country hears cases that are brought before them. Governments choose to be party to a dispute. And private citizens determine jurisdiction by the Forum Clause in their contract.
Besides forum, another factor in international disputes is the rate of exchange. With currency fluctuation ascending and descending over years, a lack of Commerce Clause can jeopardize trade between parties when one party becomes unjustly enriched through natural market fluctuations. By listing the rate of exchange expected over the contract life, parties can provide for changes in the market through reassessment of contract or division of exchange rate fluctuations.

Gravity model of trade

The gravity model of trade in international economics

, similar to other gravity models in social vscience, predicts bilateral trade flows based on the e

conomic sizes of (often using GDP measurements) and distance between two units. The model was first used by Walter Isard in 1954. The basic theoretical model for trade between two countries (i and j) takes the form of:
Where F is the trade flow, M is the economic mass of each country, D is the distance and G is a constant. The model has also been used in international relations to evaluate the impact of treaties and alliances on trade, and it has been used to test the effectiveness of trade agreements and organizations such as the North American Free Trade Agreemet (NAFTA) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Contents

1 Theoretical justifications and research
1.1 United States trade
2 Econometric Estimation of Gravity Equations
4 References
5 External links
5.1 Information
5.2 Data

Theoretical justifications and research
The model has been an empirical success, but the theoretical justifications for the model are the subject of some dispute. The model clearly has a relationship with a geographic view of trade, but other theoretical justifications for the model have also been proposed.
The gravity model estimates the pattern of international trade. While the model’s basic form consists of factors that have more to do with geography and spatiality, the gravity model has been used to test hypotheses rooted in purer economic theories of trade as well. One such theory predicts that trade will be based on relative factor abundances. One of the common relative factor abundance models is the Heckscher-Ohlin model. This theory would predict that trade patterns would be based on relative factor advantages. Those countries with a relative abundance of one factor would be expected to produce goods that require a relatively large amount of that factor in their production. While a generally accepted theory of trade, comparative advantage has suffered empirical problems. Investigations into real world trading patterns have produced a number of results that do not match the expectations of comparative advantage theories. Notably, a study by Wassily Leontief found that the United States, the most capital endowed country in the world actually exports more in labor intensive industries. Comparative advantage in factor endowments would suggest the opposite would occur. Other theories of trade and explanations for this relationship were proposed in order to explain the discrepancy between Leontief’s empirical findings and economic theory. The problem has become known as the Leontief paradox.
An alternative theory, first proposed by Staffan Lindr, predicts that patterns of trade will be determined by the aggregated preferences for goods within countries. Those countries with similar preferences would be expected to develop similar industries. With continued similar demand, these countries would continue to trade back and forth in differentiated but similar goods since both demand and produce similar products. For instance, both Germany and the United States are industrialized countries with a high preference for automobiles. Both countries have automobile industries, and both trade cars. The empirical validity of the Linder hypothesis is somewhat unclear. Several studies have found a significant impact of the Linder effect, but others have had weaker results. Studies that do not support Linder have only counted countries that actually trade; they do not input zero values for the dyads where trade could happen but does not. This has been cited as a possible explanation for their findings. Also, Linder never presented a formal model for his theory, so different studies have tested his hypothesis in different ways.
Elhanan Helpman and Paul Krugman asserted that the theory behind comparative advantage does not predict the relationships in the gravity model. Using the gravity model, countries with similar levels of income have been shown to trade more. Helpman and Krugman see this as evidence that these countries are trading in differentiated goods because of their similarities. This casts some doubt about the impact Heckscher-Ohlin has on the real world. Jeffrey Frankel sees the Helpman-Krugman set up here as distinct from Linder’s proposal. However, he does say Helpman-Krugman is different from the usual interpretation of Linder, but, since Linder made no clear model, the association between the two should not be completely discounted. Alan Deardor adds the possibility, that, while not immediately apparent, the basic gravity model can be derived from Heckscher-Ohlin as well as the Linder and Helpman-Krugman hypotheses. Deardorff concludes that, considering how many models can be tied to the gravity model equation, it is not useful for evaluating the empirical validity of theories.
Adding to the problem of bridging economic theory with empirical results, some economists have pointed to the possibility of intra-industry trade not as the result of differentiated goods, but because of “reciprocal dumping.” In these models, the countries involved are said to have imperfect competition and segmented markets in homogeneous goods, which leads to intra-industry trade as firms in imperfect competition seek to expand their markets to other countries and trade goods that are not differentiated yet for which they do not have a comparative advantage, since there is no specialization. This model of trade is consistent with the gravity model as it would predict that trade depends on country size.
The reciprocal dumping model has held up to some empirical testing, suggesting that the specialization and differentiated goods models for the gravity equation might not fully explain the gravity equation. Feenstra, Markusen, and Rose (2001) provided evidence for reciprocal dumping by assessing the "home market effect" in separate gravity equations for differentiated and homogeneous goods. The home market effect showed a relationship in the gravity estimation for differentiated goods, but showed the inverse relationship for homogeneous goods. The authors show that this result matches the theoretical predictions of reciprocal dumping playing a role in homogeneous markets.
Past research using the gravity model has also sought to evaluate the impact of various variables in addition to the basic gravity equation. Among these, price level and exchange rate variables have been shown to have a relationship in the gravity model that accounts for a significant amount of the variance not explained by the basic gravity equation. According to empirical results on price level, the effect of price level varies according the relationship being examined. For instance, if exports are being examined, a relatively high price level on the part of the importer would be expected to increase trade with that country (Bergstrand and Summary).
United States trade
Rebecca M. Summary specifically investigated American trade in an attempt to examine the specific role of political factors on United States trade. Her model consisted of the basic gravity equation, but did not multiply GDP or population (she used these separately and excluded income level) to find an interaction since she only looked at United States data and all data would be weighted by the same, cross-sectional factor. Summary’s study concluded that American exports and imports are affected by a number of political and social factors related to business ties, alliances, and foreign policy as well as the basic factors usually included in the gravity model.

Free trade area

Description
Unlike a customs union, members of a free trade area do not have a common external tariff (same policies with respect to non-members), meaning different quotas and customs. To avoid evasion (through re-exportation) the countries use the system of certification of origin most commonly called rules of origin, where there is a requirement for the minimum extent of local material inputs and local transformations adding value to the goods. Goods that don't cover these minimum requirements are not entitled for the special treatment envisioned in the free trade area provisions.
Cumulation is the relationship between different FTAs regarding the rules of origin — sometimes different FTAs supplement each other, in other cases there is no cross-cumulation between the FTAs. A free trade area is a result of a free trade agreement (a form of trade pact) between two or more countries. Free trade areas and agreements (FTAs) are cascadable to some degree — if some countries sign agreement to form free trade area and choose to negotiate together (either as a trade bloc or as a forum of individual members of their FTA) another free trade agreement with some external country (or countries) — then the new FTA will consist of the old FTA plus the new country (or countries).
Within an industrialized country there are usually few if any significant barriers to the easy exchange of goods and services between parts of that country. For example, there are usually no trade tariffs or import quotas; there are usually no delays as goods pass from one part of the country to another (other than those that distance imposes); there are usually no differences of taxation and regulation. Between countries, on the other hand, many of these barriers to the easy exchange of goods often do occur. It is commonplace for there to be import duties of one kind or another (as goods enter a country) and the levels of sales tax and regulation often vary by country.
The aim of a free trade area is to so reduce barriers to easy exchange that trade can grow as a result of specialisation, division of labour, and most importantly via (the theory and practice of) comparative advantage. The theory of comparative advantage argues that in an unrestricted marketplace (in equilibrium) each source of production will tend to specialize in that activity where it has comparative (rather than absolute) advantage. The theory argues that the net result will be an increase in income and ultimately wealth and well-being for everyone in the free trade area. However the theory refers only to aggregate wealth and says nothing about the distribution of wealth. In fact there may be significant losers, in particular among the recently protected industries with a comparative disadvantage. The proponent of free trade can, however, retort that the gains of the gainers exceed the losses of the losers.

Foreign investment

China's investment climate has changed dramatically with more than two decades of reform. In the early 1980s, China restricted foreign investments to export-oriented operations and required foreign investors to form joint-venture partnerships with Chinese firms. The Encouraged Industry Catalogue sets out the degree of foreign involvement allowed in various industry sectors. From the beginning of the reforms legalizing foreign investment, capital inflows expanded every year until 1999. Foreign-invested enterprises account for 58–60% of China’s imports and exports.
Since the early 1990s, the government has allowed foreign investors to manufacture and sell a wide range of goods on the domestic market, eliminated time restrictions on the establishment of joint ventures, provided some assurances against nationalization, allowed foreign partners to become chairs of joint venture boards, and authorized the establishment of wholly foreign-owned enterprises, now the preferred form of FDI. In 1991, China granted more preferential tax treatment for Wholly Foreign Owned Enterprises and contractual ventures and for foreign companies, which invested in selected economic zones or in projects encouraged by the state, such as energy, communications and transportation.
China also authorized some foreign banks to open branches in Shanghai and allowed foreign investors to purchase special "B" shares of stock in selected companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Securities Exchanges. These "B" shares sold to foreigners carried no ownership rights in a company. In 1997, China approved 21,046 foreign investment projects and received over $45 billion in foreign direct investment. China revised significantly its laws on Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprises and China Foreign Equity Joint Ventures in 2000 and 2001, easing export performance and domestic content requirements.
Foreign investment remains a strong element in China's rapid expansion in world trade and has been an important factor in the growth of urban jobs. In 1998, foreign-invested enterprises produced about 40% of China's exports, and foreign exchange reserves totalled about $145 billion. Foreign-invested enterprises today produce about half of China's exports (note that the majority of China's foreign investment come from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), and China continues to attract large investment inflows. However, the Chinese government's emphasis on guiding FDI into manufacturing has led to market saturation in some industries, while leaving China's services sectors underdeveloped. From 1993 to 2001, China was the world's second-largest recipient of foreign direct investment after the United States. China received $39 billion FDI in 1999 and $41 billion FDI in 2000. China is now one of the leading FDI recipients in the world, receiving almost $80 billion in 2005 according to World Bank statistics. In 2006, China received $69.47 billion in foreign direct investment.
Foreign exchange reserves totaled $155 billion in 1999 and $165 billion in 2000. Foreign exchange reserves exceeded $800 billion in 2005, more than doubling from 2003. Foreign exchange reserves were $819 billion at the end of 2005, $1.066 trillion at the end of 2006, $1.9 trillion by June 2008. In addition, by the end of September 2008 China replaced Japan for the first time as the largest foreign holder of US treasury securities with a total of $585 billion, vs Japan $573 billion. China has now surpassed those of Japan, making China's foreign exchange reserves the largest in the world.
As part of its WTO accession, China undertook to eliminate certain trade-related investment measures and to open up specified sectors that had previously been closed to foreign investment. New laws, regulations, and administrative measures to implement these commitments are being issued. Major remaining barriers to foreign investment include opaque and inconsistently enforced laws and regulations and the lack of a rules-based legal infrastructure. Warner Bros., for instance, withdrew its cinema business in China as a result of a regulation that requires Chinese investors to own at least a 51 percent stake or play a leading role in a foreign joint venture.
Outward foreign direct investment is a new feature of Chinese globalization, where local Chinese firms seek to make investments in both developing and developed countries

Industry and manufacturing

Industry and construction account for 49.2% of China's GDP. Around 8% of the total manufacturing output in the world comes from China itself. China ranks third worldwide in industrial output. Major industries include mining and ore processing; iron and steel; aluminum; coal; machinery; armaments; textiles and apparl; petroleum; cement; chemical; fertilizers; food processing; automobiles and other transportation equipment including rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; consumer products including footwear, toys, and electronics; telecommunications and information technology. China has become a preferred destination for the relocation of global manufacturing facilities. Its strength as an export platform has contributed to incomes and employment in China. The state-owned sector still accounts for about 30% of GDP. In recent years, authorities have been giving greater attention to the management of state assets—both in the financial market as well as among state-owned-enterprises—and progress has been noteworthy.
Since the founding of the People's Republic, industrial development has been given considerable attention. Among the various industrial branches the machine-building and metallurgical industries have received the highest priority. These two areas alone now account for about 20–30 percent of the total gross value of industrial output.In these, as in most other areas of industry, however, innovation has generally suffered at the hands of a system that has rewarded increases in gross output rather than improvements in variety, sophistication and quality. China, therefore, still imports significant quantities of specialized steels. Overall industrial output has grown at an average rate of more than 10 percent per year, having surpassed all other sectors in economic growth and degree of modernization.Some heavy industries and products deemed to be of national strategic importance remain state-owned, but an increasing proportion of lighter and consumer-oriented manufacturing firms are privately held or are private-state joint ventures.
The predominant focus of development in the chemical industry is to expand the output of chemical fertilizers, plastics, and synthetic fibers. The growth of this industry has placed China among the world's leading producers of nitrogenous fertilizers. In the consumer goods sector the main emphasis is on textiles and clothing, which also form an important part of China's exports. Textile manufacturing, a rapidly growing proportion of which consists of synthetics, account for about 10 percent of the gross industrial output and continues to be important, but less so than before. The industry tends to be scattered throughout the country, but there are a number of important textile centers, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Harbin.
Major state industries are iron, steel, coal, machine building, light industrial products, armaments, and textiles. These industries completed a decade of reform (1979–1989) with little substantial management change. Prior to 1978, most output was produced by state-owne enterprises. As a result of the economic reforms that followed, there was a significant increase in production by enterprises sponsored by local governments, especially townships and villages, and, increasingly, by private entrepreneurs and foreign investors. The 1996 industrial census revealed that there were 7,342,000 industrial enterprises at the end of 1995; total employment in industrial enterprises was approximately 147 million. The 1999 industrial census revealed that there were 7,930,000 industrial enterprises at the end of 1999 (including small-scale town and village enterprises); total employment in state-owned industrial enterprises was about 24 million. The automobile industry has grown rapidly since 2000, as has the petrochemica industry. Machinery and electronic products became China's main exports. China is the world’s leading manufacturer of chemical fertilizers, cement, and steel. By 2002 the share in gross industrial output by state-owned and state-holding industries had decreased to 41%, and the state-owned companies themselves contributed only 16% of China’s industrial output.
China’s construction sector has grown substantially since the early 1980s. In the twenty-first century, investment in capital construction has experienced major annual increases. In 2001 investments increased 8.5% over the previous year. In 2002 there was a 16.4% increase, followed by a 30% increase in 2003. The manufacturing sector produced 44.1% of GDP in 2004 and accounted for 11.3% of total employment in 2002. Industry and construction produced 53.1% of China’s GDP in 2005. Industry (including mining, manufacturing, constructio, and power) contributed 52.9% of GDP in 2004 and occupied 22.5% of the workforce.
Energy production has increased rapidly, but it still falls considerably short of demand. This is partly due to artificial energy prices that have been held so low that industries have had few incentives to conserve. Coal provides about 75–80 percent of China's energy consumption. Petroleum production, which began growing rapidly from an extremely low base in the early 1960s, has basically remained at the same level since the late 1970s. There are large petroleum reserves in the inaccessible northwest and potentially significant offshore petroleum deposits, but about half of the country's oil production still comes from the major Daqing oilfield in the northeast. China has much, and partially undeveloped, hydroelectric power potential and natura gas reserves. The government has made plans to develop nuclear power plants in the coastal and western regions (see Nuclear power in China).
Overall, the distribution of industry remains very uneven, despite serious efforts from the mid-1950s to the late 1970s to build up industry in the interior at the cost of the major cities on the east coast. While percentage growth of industry in the interior provinces generally greatly exceeded that of the coastal areas, the far larger initial industrial base of the latter has meant that a few coastal regions have continued to dominate China's industrial economy. The establishment of special economic zons in coastal areas only heightened this disparity. Shanghai by itself accounts for about 8–10 percent of China's gross value of industrial output,and the east coast accounts for about 60 percent of the national industrial output. The rate of industrialization increased and diversified after the early 1990s. Notable were the development of aerospace, aircraft, and automobile manufacturing. In addition, China expanded rapidly into the production of pharmaceuticals, software, semiconductors, electronics, and precision equipment.

Banks

Various legal and religious developments in the late Middle Ages allowed for development of the modern banking system at the beginning of the 16th century. Interest was allowed to be charged, and profits generated from holding other people's money.
Banks in the Italian Peninsula had great difficulty operating at the end of the 14th century, for lack of silver and gold coin. Nevertheless, by the later 16th century, enough bullion was available that many more people could keep a small amount hoarded and used as capital.
In response to this extra available money, northern European banking interests came along; among them was the Fugger family. The Fuggers were originally mine owners, but soon became involved in banking, charging interest, and other financial activities. They dealt with everyone, from small time individuals, to the highest nobility. Their banks even loaned to the emperors and kings, eventually going bankrupt when their clients defaulted. This family, and other individuals, used Italian methods which outpaced the Hanseatic League's ability to keep up with the changes occurring in northern Europe.
Antwerp had one of the first money exchanges in Europe, a Bourse, where people could change currency. After the Siege of Antwerp (1584-1585), the majority of business transactions were moved to Amsterdam. The Bank of Amsterdam, following the example of a private Stockholm corporation, began issuing paper money to lessen the difficulty of trade, replacing metal (coin and bullion) in exchanges. In 1609 the Amsterdamsche Wisselbank (Amsterdam Exchange Bank) was founded which made Amsterdam the financial center of the world until the Industrial Revolution. In a notable example of crossover between stock companies and banks, the Bank of England, which opened in 1694, was a joint-stock company.
Banking offices were usually located near centers of trade, and in the late 17th century, the largest centers for commerce were the ports of Amsterdam, London, and Hamburg. Individuals could participate in the lucrative East India trade by purchasing bills of credit from these banks, but the price they received for commodities was dependent on the ships returning (which often did not happen on time) and on the cargo they carried (which often was not according to plan). The commodities market was very volatile for this reason, and also because of the many wars that led to cargo seizures and loss of ships.

Rise of the money economy

The economy of the Roman Empire had been based on money, but after the Empire's fall, money became scarce; power and wealth became strictly land based, and local fiefs were self-sufficient. Because trade was dangerous and expensive, there were not many traders, and not much trade. The scarcity of money did not help;however, the European economic system had begun to change in the 14th century, partially as a result of the Black Plague, and the Crusades.
Banks, stock exchanges, and insurance became ways to manage the risk involved in the renewed trade. New laws came into being. Travel became safer as nations developed. Economic theories began to develop in light of all of the new trading activity. The increase in the availability of money led to the emergence of a new economic system, and new problems to go with it. The Commercial Revolution is also marked by the formalization of pre-existing, informal methods of dealing with trade and commerce.

The economy of the Roman Empiehad been based on money, but after the Empire's fall, money became scarce; power and wealth became strictly land based, and local fiefs were self-sufficient. Because trade was dangerous and expensive, there were not many traders, and not much trade. The scarcity of money did not help; however, the European economic system had begun to change in the 14th century, partially as a result of the Black Plague, and the Crusades.
Banks, stock exchanges, and insurance became ways to manage the risk involved in the renewed trade. New laws came into being. Travel became safer as nations developed. Economic theories began to develop in light of all of the new trading activity. The increase in the availability of money led to the emergence of a new economic system, and new problems to go with it. The Commercial Revolution is also marked by the formalization of pre-existing, informal methods of dealing with trade and commerce.

Inflation
An Eight Escudo Coin, used from 1566 - 1833
Spain legally amassed approximately 180 tons of gold and 8200 tons of silver through its endeavors in the New World, and another unknown amount through smuggling, spending this money to finance wars and the arts. The spent silver, suddenly being spread throughout a previously cash starved Europe, caused widespread inflation. The inflation was worsened by a growing population but a static production level, low employee salaries and a rising cost of living. This problem, combined with underpopulation (caused by the Black Death), affected the system of agriculture. The landholding aristocracy suffered under the inflation, since they depended on paying small, fixed wages to peasant tenants that were becoming able to demand higher wages. The aristocracy made failed attempts to counteract this situation by creating short-term leases of their lands to allow periodic revaluation of rent. The manorial system (manor system of lord and peasant tenant) eventually vanished, and the landholding aristocrats were forced to sell pieces of their land in order to maintain their style of living. Such sales attracted the rich bourgeois(from "burghers", the city-dwelling middle class), who wanted to buy land and thereby increase their social status. Former "common lands" were fenced by the landed bourgeois, a process known as "enclosure" which increased the efficiency of raising livestock (mainly sheep's wool for the textile industry). This "enclosure" forced the peasants out of rural areas and into the cities, resulting in urbanization and eventually the industrial revolution.
On the other hand, the increase in the availability of silver coin allowed for commerce to expand in numerous ways. Inflation was not all bad
An Eight Escudo Coin, used from 1566 - 1833
Spain legally amassed approximately 180 tons of gold and 8200 tons of silver through its endeavors in the New World, and another unknown amount through smuggling, spending this money to finance wars and the arts. The spent silver, suddenly being spread throughout a previously cash starved Europe, caused widespread inflation. The inflation was worsened by a growing population but a static production level, low employee salaries and a rising cost of living. This problem, combined with underpopulation (caused by the Black Death), affected the system of agriculture. The landholding aristocracy suffered under the inflation, since they depended on paying small, fixed wages to peasant tenants that were becoming able to demand higher wages.The aristocracy made failed attempts to counteract this situation by creating short-term leases of their lands to allow periodic revaluation of rent. The manorial system (manor system of lord and peasant tenant) eventually vanished, and the landholding aristocrats were forced to sell pieces of their land in order to maintain their style of living. Such sales attracted the rich bourgeois (from "burghers", the city-dwelling middle class), who wanted to buy land and thereby increase their social status. Former "common lands" were fenced by the landed bourgeois, a process known as "enclosure" which increased the efficiency of raising livestock (mainly sheep's wool for the textile industry). This "enclosure" forced the peasants out of rural areas and into the cities, resulting in urbanization and eventually the industrial revolution.
On the other hand, the increase in the availability of silver coin allowed for commerce to expand in numerous ways. Inflation was not all bad.

Technological factors

From the sixth to the eighteenth centuries, Europeans made remarkable maritime innovations. These innovations enabled them to expand overseas and set up colonies, most notably during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. They developed new sail arrangements for ships, skeleton-based shipbuilding, the Western “galea” (at the end of the eleventh century), sophisticated navigational instruments, and detailed chars. After Isaac Newton published the Principia, navigation was transformed, because sailors could predict the motion of the moon and other celestial objects using Newton's theories of motion.Starting in 1670, the entire world was measured using essentially modern latitude instruments. In 1676, the British Parliament declared that navigation was the greatest scientific problem of the age and in 1714 offered a substantial financial prize for the solution to finding longitude. This spurred the development of the marine chronometer, the lunar distance method and the invention of the octant after 1730.By the late 18th century, navigators replaced their prior instruments with octants and sextants.

Important people
Significant contributors to European exploration include Prince Henry the Navigator of Portugal, who was the first of the Europeans to venture out into the Atlantic Ocean, in 1420. Others are Bartolomeu Dias, who first rounded Cape of Good Hope; Vasco da Gama, who sailed directly to India from Portugal; Ferdinand Magellan, the first to circumnavigate the Earth; Christopher Columbus, who significantly encountered the Americas; Jacques Cartier, who sailed for France, looking for the Northwest Passage;and others.

Geopolitical factors

In 1453, the Ottoman took over Constantinople, which cut off (or significantly increased the cost of) overland trade routes to the Far East so alternate routes had to be found. English laws were changed to benefit the navy, but had commercial implications in terms of farming. These laws also contributed to the demise of the Hanseatic League, which traded in northern Europe. Because of the Reconquista, the Spanish had a warrior culture ready to conquer still more people and places, so Spain was perfectly positioned to develop their vast overseas empire. Rivalry between the European powers produced intense competition for the creation of colonial empires, and fueled the rush to sail out of Europe.
Monetary factors:
The need for silver coinage also had an impact on the desire for expanded exploration as silver and gold were spent for trade to the Middle and Far East. The Europeans had a constant deficit in that silver and gold coin only went one way: out of Europe, spent on the very type of trade that they were now cut off from by the Ottomans. Another issue was that European mines were exhausted of silver and gold ore. What ore remained was too deep to recover, as water would fill the mine, and technology was not sufficiently advanced enough to successfully remove the water to get to the ore.

Voyages of discovery

A combination of factors drove the Age of Discovery. Among these were geopolitical, monetary, and technological factors. The Europeans involved in the Age of Discovery were mainly from Britain, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal. During this period (1450-1600s), the European economic center shifted from the Islamic Mediterranean to Western Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, the Netherlands, and to some extent England). This shift was caused by the successful circumnavigation of Africa opening up sea-trade with the east: after Portugal's Vasco Da Gama rounded the Cape of Good Hope and landed in Calicut, India, a new path of eastern trade was possible ending the monopoly of the Ottoman Turks and their European allies, the Italian city-states.The wealth of the Indies was now open for the Europeans to explore; the Portuguese Empire was one of the early European empires to grow from spice trade.Following this, Portugal became the controlling state for trade between east and west, followed later by the Dutch city of Antwerp. Direct maritime trade between Europe and China started in the 16th century, after the Portuguese established the settlement of Goa in India, and shortly thereafter that of Macau in southern China. Since the English came late to the transatlantic trade,their commercial revolution was later as well

Commercial Revolution

The Commercial Revolution was a period of European economic expansion, colonialism, and mercantilism which lasted from approximately the sixteenth century until the early eighteenth century. Beginning with the Crusades, Europeans rediscovered spices, silks, and other commodities rare in Europe. This development created a new desire for trade, and trade expanded in the second half of the Middle Ages. European nations, through voyages of discovery, were looking for new trade routes in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, which allowed the European powers to build vast, new international trade networks. Nations also sought new sources of wealth. To deal with this new-found wealth, new economic theories and practices were created. Because of competing national interest, nations had the desire for increased world power through their colonial empires. The Commercial Revolution is marked by an increase in general commerce, and in the growth of non-manufacturing pursuits, such as banking, insurance, and investing.
Contents
1 Origins of the term
2 Time frame
3 Voyages of discover
3.1 Geopolitical factors
3.2 Monetary factors
3.3 Technological factors
3.4 Important people
4 Rise of the money economy
4.1 Inflation
4.2 Banks
4.3 Managing risk
4.3.1 Joint stock companies and stock exchanges
4.3.2 Insurance companie
4.4 Economic theory
4.4.1 Mercantilism
4.4.2 Free trade
5 Colonialism
5.1 Trade monopolies
5.2 Triangular Trade
6 Law

Balance of trade

The balance of trade (or net exports, sometimes symbolized as NX) is the difference between the monetary value of exports and of output in an economy over a certain period. It is the relationship between a nation's imports and exports.A favourable balance of trade is known as a trade surplus and consists of exporting more than is imported; an unfavourable balance of trade is known as a trade deficit or, informally, a trade gap. The balance of trade is sometimes divided into a goods and a services balance.
Primitive understanding of the functioning of balance of trade informed the economic policies of Early Modern Europe that are grouped under the heading mercantilism. An early statement appeared in Discourse of the Common Weal of this Realm of England, 1549: "We must always take heed that we buy no more from strangers than we sell them, for so should we impoverish ourselves and enrich them

Contents
1 Definition
2 Views on economic impact
2.1 Conditions where trade deficits may be considered harmful
2.2 Conditions where trade imbalances may not be harmful
3 Milton Friedman on trade deficits
4 Warren Buffett on trade deficits
5 John Maynard Keynes on the balance of trade
6 Physical balance of trade
7 United States trade deficit

Regulation of international trade

Traditionally trade was regulated through bilateral treaties between two nations. For centuries under the belief in mercantilism most nations had high tariffs and many restrictions on international trade. In the 19th century, especially in the United Kingdom a belief in free trade became paramount.[citation needed] This belief became the dominant thinking among western nations since then. In the years since the Second World War, controversial multilateral treaties like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and World Trade Organization have attempted to create a globally regulated trade structure. These trade agreements have often resulted in protest and discontent with claims of unfair trade that is not mutually beneficial.
Free trade is usually most strongly supported by the most economically powerful nations, though they often engage in selective those industries which are strategically important such as the protective tariffs applied to agriculture by the United States and Europe.[citation needed The Netherlands and the United Kingdom were both strong advocates of free trade when they were economically dominant, today the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan are its greatest proponents. However, many other countries (such as India, China and Russia) are increasingly becoming advocates of free trade as they become more economically powerful themselves. As tariff levels fall there is also an increasing willingness to negotiate non tariff measures, including foreign direct investment, procurement and trade facilitation.[citation needed] The latter looks at the transaction cost associated with meeting trade and customs procedures.
Traditionally agricultural interests are usually in favour of free trade while manufacturing sectors often support protectionism.[citation needed]This has changed somewhat in recent years, however. In fact, agricultural lobbies, particularly in the United States, Europe and Japan, are chiefly responsible for particular rules in the major international trade treaties which allow for more protectionist measures in agriculture than for most other goods and services.
During recessions there is often strong domestic pressure to increase tariffs to protect domestic industries. This occurred around the world during the Great Depression. Many economists have attempted to portray tariffs as the underlining reason behind the collapse in world trade that many believe seriously deepened the depression.
The regulation of international trade is done through the World Trade Organization at the global level, and through several other regional arrangements such as MERCOSUR in South America, the North American Fre Trade Agreemen (NAFTA) between the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the European Union between 27 independent states. The 2005 Buenos Aires talks on the planned establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) failed largely because of opposition from the populations of Latin American nations. Similar agreements such as the Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI) have also failed in recent years.

Heckscher-Ohlin model

The Heckscher-Ohlin model was produced as an alternative to the Ricardian model of basic comparative advantage. Despite its greater complexity it did not prove much more accurate in its predictions. However from a theoretical point of view it did provide an elegant solution by incorporating the neoclassical price mechanism into international trade theory.
The theory argues that the pattern of international trade is determined by differences in factor endowments. It predicts that countries will export those goods that make intensive use of locally abundant factors and will import goods that make intensive use of factors that are locally scarce. Empirical problems with the H-O model, known as the Leontief paradox, were exposed in empirical tests by Wassily Leontief who found that the United States tended to export labor intensive goods despite having a capital abundance.
The H-O model makes the following core assumptions:
Labor and capital flow freely between sectors
The production of shoes is labor intensive and computers is capital intensive
The amount of labor and capital in two countries differ (difference in endowments)
free trade
technology is the same across countries (long-term)
Tastes are the same.
The problem with the H-O theory is that it excludes the trade of capital goods (including materials and fuels). In the H-O theory, labor and capital are fixed entities endowed to each country. In a modern economy, capital goods are traded internationally. Gains from trade of intermediate goods are considerable, as it was emphasized by Samuelson (2001).In the early 1900s an international trade theory called factor proportions theory emerged by two Swedish economists, Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. This theory is also called the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory stresses that countries should produce and export goods that require resources (factors) that are abundant and import goods that require resources in short supply. This theory differs from the theories of comparative advantage and absolute advantage since these theory focuses on the productivity of the production process for a particular good. On the contrary, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory states that a country should specialise production and export using the factors that are most abundant, and thus the cheapest. Not produce, as earlier theories stated, the goods it produces most efficiently.

Ricardian model

The Ricardian model focuses on comparative advantage and is perhaps the most important concept in international trade theory. In a Ricardian model, countries specialize in producing what they produce best. Unlike other models, the Ricardian framework predicts that countries will fully specialize instead of producing a broad array of goods. Also, the Ricardian model does not directly consider factor endowments, such as the relative amounts of labor and capital within a country. The main merit of Ricardin model is that it assumes technology differences between countries.[citation needed Technology gap is easily included in the Ricardian and Ricardo-Sraffa model (See the next subsection).
The Ricardian model makes the following assumptions:
Labor is the only primary input to production (labor is considered to be the ultimate source of value).
Constant Marginal Product of Labor (MPL) (Labor productivity is constant, constant returns to scale, and simple technology.)
Limited amount of labor in the economy
Labor is perfectly mobile among sectors but not internationally.
Perfect competition (price-takers).
The Ricardian model measures in the short-run, therefore technology differs internationally. This supports the fact that countries follow their comparative advantage and allows for specialization.
Modern development of the Ricardian model
The Ricardian trade model was studied by Graham, Jones, McKenzie and others. All the theories excluded intermediate goods, or traded input goods such as materials and capital goods. McKenzie(1954), Jones(1961) and Samuelson(2001)emphasized that considerable gains from trade would be lost once intermediate goods were excluded from trade. In a famous comment McKenzie (1954, p.179) pointed that "A moment's consideration will convince one that Lancashire would be unlikely to produce cotton cloth if the cotton had to be grown in England."
Recently, the theory was extended to the case that includes traded intermediates. Thus the "labor only" assumption (#1 above) was removed from the theory. Thus the new Ricardian theory, or the Ricardo-Sraffa model, as it is sometimes named, theoretically includes capital goods such as machines and materials, which are traded across countries. In the time of global trade, this assumption is much more realistic than the Heckscher-Ohlin model, which assumes that capital is fixed inside the country and does not move internationally.

International trade

International trade is exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories.In most countries, it represents a significant share of gross domestic produt (GDP). While international trade has been present throughout much of history (see Silk Road, Amber Road), its economic, social, and political importance has been on the rise in recent centuries. Industrialization, advanced transportation, globalization, multinational corporations, and outsourcing are all having a major impact on the international trade system. Increasing international trade is crucial to the continuance of globalization. International trade is a major source of economic revenue for any nation that is considered a world power. Without international trade, nations would be limited to the goods and services produced within their own borders.
International trade is in principle not different from domestic trade as the motivation and the behavior of parties involved in a trade does not change fundamentally depending on whether trade is across a border or not. The main difference is that international trade is typically more costly than domestic trade. The reason is that a border typically imposes additional costs such as tariffs, time costs due to border delays and costs associated with country differences such as language, the legal system or a different culture.

International trade uses a variety of currencies, the most important of which are held as foreign by governments and central banks. Here the percentage of global cummulative reserves held for each currency between 1995 and 2005 are shown: the US dollar is the most sought-after currency, with the Euro in strong demand as well.
Another difference between domestic and international trade is that factors of production such as capital and labor are typically more mobile within a country than across countries. Thus international trade is mostly restricted to trade in goods and services, and only to a lesser extent to trade in capital, labor or other factors of production. Then trade in goods and services can serve as a substitute for trade in factors of production. Instead of importing the factor of production a country can import goods that make intensive use of the factor of production and are thus embodying the respective factor. An example is the import of labor-intensive goods by the United States from China. Instead of importing Chinese labor the United States is importing goods from China that were produced with Chinese labor. International trade is also a branch of , which, together with international finance, forms the larger branch of international economics.

United States trade deficit

The United States of America has held a trade deficit starting late in the 1960s. It was this very deficit that forced the United States in 1971 off the gold standard. Its trade deficit has been increasing at a large rate since 1997 (See chart) and increased by 49.8 billion dollars between 2005 and 2006, setting a record high of 817.3 billion dollars, up from 767.5 billion dollars the previous year.
It is worth noting on the graph that the deficit slackened during recessions and grew during periods of expansion. Also of note, many economists calculate trade deficits and/or current account deficits as a percentage of GDP. The US last had a trade surplus in 1991, a recession year. Every year there has been a major reduction in economic growth, it is followed by a reduction in the US trade deficit. The investor Warren Buffett has proposed a tool called Import Certificates as a solution to the United States' problem

Conditions where trade deficits may be considered harmful

Those who ignore the effects of long run trade deficits may be confusing David Ricardo's principle of comparative advantage with Adam Smith's principle of absolute advantage, specifically ignoring the latter. The economist Paul Craig Roberts notes that the comparative advantage principles developed by Davi Ricardo do not hold where the factors of production are internationally mobile Global labor arbitrage, a phenomenon described by economist Stephen S. Roach, where one country exploits the cheap labor of another, would be a case of absolute advantage that is not mutually beneficial.

Deteriorating U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) has caused concern among economists over the effects of outsourcing and high U.S. trade deficits over the long-run.Since the stagflation of the 1970s, the U.S. economy has been characterized by slower GDP growth. In 1985, the U.S. began its growing trade deficit with China. Over the long run, nations with trade surpluses tend also to have a savings surplus. The U.S. has been plagued by persistently lower savings rates than its trading partners which tend to have trade surpluses. Germany, France, Japan, and Canada have maintained higher savings rates than the U.S. over the long run.Some economists believe that GDP and employment can be dragged down by an over-large deficit over the long run.Wealth-producing primary sector jobs in the U.S. such as those in manufacturing and computer software have often been replaced by much lower paying wealth-consuming jobs such those in retail and government in the service sector when the economy recovered from recessions.Some economists contend that the U.S. is borrowing to fund consumption of imports while accumulating unsustainable amounts of debt'
In 2006, the primary economic concerns centered around: high national debt ($9 trillion), high non-bank corporate debt ($9 trillion), high mortgage debt ($9 trillion), high financial institution debt ($12 trillion), high unfunded Medicare liability ($30 trillion), high unfunded Social Security liability ($12 trillion), high externdebt (amount owed to foreign lenders) and a serious deterioration in the United States investmenpositio (NIIP) (-24% of GDP), high trade deficits, and a rise in illegal immigration
These issues have raised concerns among economists and unfunded liabilities were mentioned as a serious problem facing the United States in the President's 2006 State of the Union address On June 26 2009, Jeff Immelt, the CEO of General Electric, called for the United States to increase its manufacturing base employment to 20% of the workforce, commenting that the U.S. has outsourced too much in some areas and can no longer rely on the financial sector and consumer spending to drive demand

Balance of trade

The balance of trade (or net exports, sometimes symbolized as NX) is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports of output in an economy over a certain period. It is the relationship between a nation's imports and exports.A favourable balance of trade is known as a trade surplus and consists of exporting more than is imported; an unfavourable balance of trade is known as a trade deficit or, informally, a trade gap. The balance of trade is sometimes divided into a goods and a services balance.

• The balance of trade form part of the current account, which include other transactions such as income from the international investment position as well as international aid. If the current account is in surplus, the country's net international asset position increases correspondingly. Equally, a deficit decrease the net international asset position.
  The trade balance is identical to the difference between a country's output and its domestic demand (the difference between what goods a country produces and how many goods it buys from abroad; this does not include money re-spent on foreign stock, nor does it factor the concept of importing goods to produce for the domestic market).
  Measuring the balance of trade can be problematic because of problems with recording and collecting data. As an illustration of this problem, when official data for all the world's countries are added up, exports exceed imports by a few percent; it appears the world is running a positive balance of trade with itself. This cannot be true, because all transactions involve an equal credit or debit in the account of each nation. The discrepancy is widely believed to be explained by transactions intended to launder money or evade taxes, smuggling and other visibility problems. However, especially for developed countries, accuracy is likely.
  Factors that can affect the balance of trade include:
  The cost of production (land, labor, capital, taxes, incentives, etc.) in the exporting economy vis-à-vis those in the importing economy;
  The cost and availability of raw materials, intermediate goods and other inputs;
  Exchange rate movements;
  Multilateral, bilateral and unilateral taxes or restrictions on trade;
  Non-tariff barriers such as environmental, health or safety standards;
  The availability of adequate foreign exchange with which to pay for imports; and
  Prices of goods manufactured at home (influenced by the responsiveness of supply)
  In addition, the trade balance is likely to differ across the business cycle. In export led growth (such as oil and early industrial goods), the balance of trade will improve during an economic expansion. However, with domestic demand led growth (as in the United States and Australia) the trade balance will worsen at the same stage in the business cycle.

Speculation

Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, economists including Milton Friedman have argued that speculators ultimately are a stabilizing influence on the market and perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do.Other economists such as Joseph Stiglitz consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.
Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators. According to some economists, individual traders could act as "noise traders" and have a more destabilizing role than larger and better informed actors.
Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries.[where?] While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not; according to this view, it is simply gambling that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 500% per annum, and later to devalue the krona.Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.
Gregory J. Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and foreign exchange speculators allegedly made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions. Given that Malaysia recovered quickly after imposing currency controls directly against International Monetary Fund advice, this view is open to doubt

Algorithmic trading in foreign exchange

Financial instruments
Spot:
A spot transaction is a two-day delivery transaction (except in the case of trades between the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Turkish Lira and Russian Ruble, which settle the next business day), as opposed to the futures contracts, which are usually three months. This trade represents a “direct exchange” between two currencies, has the shortest time frame, involves cash rather than a contract; and interest is not included in the agreed-upon transaction. The data for this study come from the spot market. Spot transactions has the second largest turnover by volume after Swap transactions among all FX transactions in the Global FX market. NNM
Forward
See also: forward contract
One way to deal with the foreign exchange risk is to engage in a forward transaction. In this transaction, money does not actually change hands until some agreed upon future date. A buyer and seller agree on an exchange rate for any date in the future, and the transaction occurs on that date, regardless of what the market rates are then. The duration of the trade can be a one day, a few days, months or years. Usually the date is decided by both parties.
Future
Main article: currency future
Foreign currency futures are exchange traded forward transactions with standard contract sizes and maturity dates — for example, $1000 for next November at an agreed rate Futures are standardized and are usually traded on an exchange created for this purpose. The average contract length is roughly 3 months. Futures contracts are usually inclusive of any interest amounts.
Swap
Main article: foreign exchange swap
The most common type of forward transaction is the currency swap. In a swap, two parties exchange currencies for a certain length of time and agree to reverse the transaction at a later date. These are not standardized contracts and are not traded through an exchange.
Option
Main article: foreign exchange option
A foreign exchange option (commonly shortened to just FX option) is a derivative where the owner has the right but not the obligation to exchange money denominated in one currency into another currency at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date. The FX options market is the deepest, largest and most liquid market for options of any kind in the world..
Exchange-traded fund
Main article: exchange-traded fund
Exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) are open ended investment companies that can be traded at any time throughout the course of the day. Typically, ETFs try to replicate a stock market index such as the S&P 500 (e.g., SPY), but recently they are now replicating investments in the currency markets with the ETF increasing in value when the US Dollar weakens versus a specific currency, such as the Euro. Certain of these funds track the price movements of world currencies versus the US Dollar, and increase in value directly counter to the US Dollar, allowing for speculation in the US Dollar for US and US Dollar denominated investors and speculators

Economic factors trading:

These include: (a)economic policy, disseminated by government agencies and central banks, (b)economic conditions, generally revealed through economic reports, and other economic indicators
Economic policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).
Economic conditions include:
Government budget deficits or surpluses
The market usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's currency.
Balance of trade levels and trends
The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
Inflation levels and trends
Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level of inflation in the country or if inflation levels are perceived to be rising. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates to combat rising inflation.
Economic growth and health
Reports such as GDP, employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization and others, detail the levels of a country's economic growth and health. Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy, the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for it there will be.
Productivity of an economy
Increasing productivity in an economy should positively influence the value of its currency. Its effects are more prominent if the increase is in the traded sector

Determinants of FX rates

The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions viz; Relative Purchasing Power Parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate). This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate) views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”
None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: factors, political conditions and market psychology

Trading characteristics

Most traded currencies

Currency distribution of reported FX market turnover
Rank Currency I SO 4217 code(Symbol) % daily share(April 2007)
1 United States dollar USD ($) 86.3%
2 Euro EUR (€) 37.0%
3 Japanese yen JPY (¥) 17.0%
4 Pound sterling GBP (£) 15.0%
5 Swiss franc CHF (Fr) 6.8%
6 Australian dollar AUD ($) 6.7%
7 Canadian dollar CAD ($) 4.2%
8-9 Swedish krona SEK (kr) 2.8%
8-9   Hong Kong dollar HKD ($) 2.8%
10 Norwegian krone NOK (kr) 2.2%
11 New Zealand dollar NZD ($) 1.9%
12 Mexican peso MXN ($) 1.3%
13   Singapore dollar SGD ($) 1.2%
14   South Korean won KRW (₩) 1.1%
Other 14.5%
Total 200%

There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of FX trades, and there is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs instantaneously. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. A joint venture of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fxmarketspace opened in 2007 and aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism.
The main trading center is London, but New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day; as the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.
Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory), interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers' order flow.
Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXXYYY or YYY/XXX, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX is expressed (called base currency). For instance, EURUSD or USD/EUR is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.5465 dollar. Out of convention, the first currency in the pair, the "base" currency, was the stronger currency at the creation of the pair. The second currency, counter currency or "term" currency, was the weaker currency at the creation of the pair. Currencies are occasionally incorrectly quoted with the pairs inverted e.g. EUR/USD but this is incorrect. The "/" acts the same as the divide mathematical operator and derives the actual exchange rate. e.g. an amount of $140,000 equates to €100,000. $140,000/€100,000 = $/€ = USD/EUR = a rate of 1.4 hence EURUSD or USD/EUR. See Exchange_rate
The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXXYYY and XXXZZZ. This causes positive currency correlation between XXXYYY and XXXZZZ.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
EURUSD: 27%
USDJPY: 13%
GBPUSD (also called cable): 12%
and the US currency was involved in 86.3% of transactions, followed by the euro (37.0%), the yen (17.0%), and sterling (15.0%) (see table). Volume percentages for all individual currencies should add up to 200%, as each transaction involves two currencies.
Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollar-centered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EURUSD and USDZZZ. The exception to this is EURJPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased dramatically. Transactions in the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased